AIR India Deal: Catalyst for Aviation Industries

The COVID-19 pandemic caused total disruption in the airline industry. The aviation sector struggled to survive, with 80 percent of flights canceled during the pandemic. Whole travel & hospitality industries were struggling with pandemic slowdown. Before the revival from pandemic Russia-Ukraine war affected the aviation industries. Oil and maintenance price increased which reduced profit margin for aviation sector. So many routes got canceled or restructured airline routing. On top of that, Airlines canceled thousands of flights as a massive winter storm and bitter cold swept the U.S., which directly impacted airlines revenue. Remote work is also impacting aviation industries. Most company travel related work reduces tremendously and it is directly impacting aviation industries.

This disruption directly impacted airlines manufacturers and supporting industries. Aviation Modernization getting impacted with these aviation disruption. Budget cuts are also slowing down digital transformation of airlines industries. Aviation industry leaders were expecting recovery would be very long and it would change forever.

But in the economic slowdown and pandemic affected aviation industries, Air India deal with Boeing and Airbus came with new hope for aviation industries. This deal will help to re-energize and rejuvenate whole aviation industries. This deal is going to impact at least 3 continents and will generate millions of job opportunities. This will help to stop the economic slowdown and restart the economic engine. Air India is going to buy 460 aircraft from two main aircraft manufacturers. This is the 2nd largest aircraft order in the history of global aviation. It is called the mother of all deals in aircraft industries. Total list price for these deals are approx. 80 billion dollars. These deals are splitted between two aircraft manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus. Boeing is providing a total 220 aircraft and Airbus will deliver 240 aircrafts. This mega deal is so huge that it is elevating India’s image and putting India as a bright spot in the whole world economy.

Now lets see how this deal is going to affect the Aircraft Manufacturer, Airlines and Airport sector.

Aircraft Manufacturer
  1. Parts traceability for Airbus and Boeing – Boeing Aircraft parts manufacturers spread across approx. 3 North America countries and 44 US states. Similarly Airbus parts manufacturers are  spread across  approximately 10 European countries. This will lead to generating millions of jobs in these places but the big challenge is to manage part traceability and assembly of these parts. Materials management team picks and packs parts into kits to be delivered to the parts assembly working area in the aircraft factory. Create a robust system for real-time visibility of these parts for quick collaboration and decisions.
  1. Certification Compliances traceability  – Each small aircraft part is a very critical item for aircraft assembly. All these parts need to be certified with the external Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for US and European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) for European countries. Tracing and management of these certifications is one of the most important  activities for Aircraft industries. This system should be highly visible and audited for aircraft safety.
  1.  Cross Team Visibility and Collaboration –  A lot of people, both external and internal are working for one aircraft. It also involves a number of systems and processes to deliver one aircraft. People, systems and processes need to come together to deliver and maintain aircraft. This whole collaboration needs to be highly transparent and visible to deliver aircraft efficiently.
  1. Delivery and Service – Safety and documentation is a very important activity for any aircraft delivery. All steps and processes need to be properly documented and executed through respective teams. Any of these missing steps/processes  lead to delayed aircraft delivery. 
Airlines

This mega deal will generate all kinds of  job opportunities within India and across the world wherever Air India will fly. This deal will also impact the Air India system and process.  

  1. Airlines Route management – More aircraft for airlines, more robust and transparent route management system. Any of these systems delay airline operation. You also need to collaborate with your partner airlines route for high profit margin. These systems and processes need more people across the world wherever Air India airlines will fly. Digital transformation will also help to transparent the whole system and increase operational efficiency.
  1. Aircraft Maintenance and parts management –  Aircraft maintenance and part management is a big challenge for airlines. Like Air India buying more aircraft it will need a more transparent maintenance  system/tracking, people and airlines hubs. Airlines also need large hangers to maintain their aircraft. 
  1. Employee management and experience – More aircraft, more routes and more employees to manage the whole airline system. This includes more corporate employees, In flight crews and ground maintenance associates  recruitment, onboarding & retention. 
Airport 

An airport is a massive business and has many verticals on its own. An airport as not just the spaces you see, such as departure, arrivals hall, duty free, security, etc. but an airport is a complex organization with many parties coming and going, the airport, retailers, service providers on the airside, the airlines, the cargo & warehousing spaces, aircraft MRO, fueling, as well as day authorities such as air traffic control, customs for people & Cargo, security, fire & emergency services, etc.

Since Air India is increasing its fleet , It will also impact airport operation and process. It will bring more opportunities to the airport.

  1. Efficient passenger process – Airport customer service, passport control, boarding/arrival, airport gate management comes in this category. It will be heavily impacted with more flights from Air India.
  2. Airport Safety, Security and health management – With this deal, more travelers will arrive and depart from the airport. To keep airports safe and secure, airports need more resources and their system transparent. They need to enable touchless solution to create perceived security around COVID-19
  3. Baggage operation – Baggage operation and management  is also a very important process for airports. This process will also get heavily impacted with this new  Aircraft purchase.

Retail 2023: The new Trend

From the last few years COVID pandemic has changed the whole Retail business spectrum in ways we could have never imagined before. Exploring new and accelerated trends gives us an indication of how this evolution will continue into the new normal. This pandemic also leads to closure of countless stores and bankruptcy. After surviving from the pandemic, inflation is hard hitting Retail business. Supply chain is also getting impacted with the Russia-Ukraine war. Now experts are saying that the greatest risk facing global supply chains has shifted from the pandemic to the Russia-Ukraine military conflict and the geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

With all this news for Retail industries, customer expectations and habits have shifted. Customers expect engagement on values to go beyond point of purchase to creating moments of engagement across the full journey. Now retailers have been compelled to find new ways to connect with consumers in a personalized and tailored way in-store as well as online to make a more intuitive experience. Retailers are going more digitized in their approach to connect with customers.

This is how retailers are moving forward to reach a wider customer base and lure their product. 

  1. e-commerce Technologies – In pandemic time if your business presence was not online then you will be out of business quickly. So Retailers have increased investment in e-commerce technologies. They increased the budget for digital transformation. To get ahead of competition, they are offering a mix of digital and physical experiences ahead of their rivals. Retailers are also focusing on customer service and providing seamless service experience across messaging, web and mobile channels. Retailers are creating a cohesive and connected customer shopping journey with e-commerce and unified data across systems.
  1. Infrastructure– Retailers are upgrading their instore as well as online infrastructure. They are replacing traditional store signs with digital signs and screens to display ads and videos. They are also adding kiosks and self-checkouts within the store. This is making the shopping experience more convenient and personalized. Shoppers are in and out, without having to make small talk or wait in queues. Deployment of in-store technologies double in a year.
  1. API-first and Cloud – Retailers are focused on Composable architecture. Composable architectures are key players to  implement successful digital transformations and most engaging digital experiences. 2023 will be a year of focus for retailers to remove entirely their legacy monolithic architectures. API-first and Cloud based solutions help retailers to switch to new functionality without the need for significant investment and resources. This will reduce the incredible amount of time and cost of ownership of a fraction of legacy technologies. API-first connectivity helps customers to shop anytime, anywhere and anyhow
  1. Customer experience – Customer experience is the one the main focus for Retailers this year. The focus of customer experience is online as well as in store experience. Retailers are providing customers enhanced assisted-selling experiences through assisted Selling. They are also focusing online customers through distributed OMS (Order Management System), Omni-channel and remote Selling. Retails are preparing for next level customer experience through loyalty(customers long-term relationships), native App and AI based digital fitting room.
  1. Merchandising & Supply Chain – Retailers are providing real time tracking and inventory information to their customers. They are also providing purchase incentives to their loyal customers so that they can keep engaging customers for their products. Retailers are also focusing on upgradation of warehouse management (WMS) to fulfill in-store as well as online orders.

ChatGPT: A Intro & Company Use-Case

The internet is full of buzz about the new AI based chatbot, chatGPT. ChatGPT reminds me of the early days of  google, how google came and changed our internet search forever. We were using lycos search engine but google gave a new definition of search engine. Similarly I am seeing chatGPT is trying to define our search which is based on AI and AI models. It is coming as a new disruptive technology. Suddenly google is looking like old school.

Generative Pretrained Transformer 3 (GPT-3)  from OpenAI, is the main component for Jasper.ai and other cloud based content writing, chatbot and machine learning applications. GPT-3 was first publicly released by OpenAI on June 11, 2020.  GPT-3 is based on the concept of natural language processing (NLP) tasks and “generative pretraining”, which involves predicting the next token in a context of up to 2,048 tokens. 

GPT-3 is based on Large language models (LLMs). Large language models (LLMs) are AI tools that can read, summarize, and translate text. They can predict words and craft sentences that reflect how humans write and speak.Three popular and powerful large language models include Microsoft ’s Turing NLG, DeepMind’s Gopher, and OpenAI ’s GPT-3.

ChatGPT was first publicly released by OpenAI on November 30, 2022 based on the GPT-3 framework. Initially developed as part of the GPT-3 research program, ChatGPT was built on top of the powerful GPT-3.5 language model to specifically address natural language processing tasks that involve customer service chat interactions.

OpenAI’s Chat GPT3 has demonstrated the capability of performing professional tasks such as writing software code and preparing legal documents. It has also shown a remarkable ability to automate some of the skills of highly compensated knowledge workers in general. ChatGPT has immense potential for ecommerce customer experience automation. ChatGPT allows customers to personalized shopping and fully automated 24 x 7 customer service on-demand.

In spite of chatGPT buzzwords, ability to content writing and customer service on-demand, I am little careful to use this technology for my business. I tested a few use-cases in chatGPT. It is working fine with some simple use-case and problem solving. But as soon as I added a few more variables to my problem, the chatGPT response was not correct.

Here is screenshot from ChatGPT for my problem and solution from chatGPT

The problem shown above chatGPT directly calculated from equation and response came as 5 min.

In chatGPT’s response it is not calculating a person’s waiting time in the queue. 

So from above question right answer would be

Average Waiting Time = Average Processing Time x Utilization / (1-Utilization).

Average Waiting Time = 5 x (5/6) / (1 – 5/6) = 25 minutes

So, the correct answer is 25 minutes waiting in line. If we add the 5 minutes at the kiosk, we obtain a total of 30 minutes.

So from the above issue, I would like to highlight a few points if your company is trying to implement any ChatGPT solution.

  1. Does the ChatGPT AI model is configured based on your company use case?
  2. Do you have enough historical data to run and test AI based chatGPT LLM models?
  3. ChatGPT runs on the big model like LLM model. Big models incur a big cost, and LLM are expensive.
  4. Since ChatGPT runs on a big model (LLM), ChatGPT  needs to overcome performance constraints.

Keep an eye out for GPT-4, which may be released as early as the first half of 2023. This next generation of GPT may be better at their results and more realistic. 

Recession: Impact in Software as a Service(SaaS) 

Global uncertainties continue to dominate headlines. Inflation is expected to reach the highest levels of ~3.5% in the US and Europe by the end of 2023. To ease inflation, Central Banks need to dampen demand, by making it expensive (for financial institutions, businesses and households) to borrow by increasing Federal Reserve interest rates . We are expecting a federal rate hike of 4.75% – 5.0% by the end of 2023. These are all data showing we are heading toward recession. The US labor market was robust last quarter but this quarter it is not very promising. Everyday we are hearing layoff news from different sectors.

IMF inflation forecast

These inflation and layoff news are impacting our tech market. Many companies have a growth challenge: They expect to get as much as 50 percent of their revenue from new businesses and products by 2026 but are not on a path that will take them there. Current economic conditions are forcing high-growth yet unprofitable tech startups to tighten their financial belts.

There are few realities, software companies are facing for their growth.

US-based Venture capitalists backed software startups slowed down – VC are very clear of high valuation and demanding that companies spend less, improve profit margin and high output. Unicorn creation also slowed in 2022 Q4. This is one of the lowest quarterly count since the first quarter of 2020.

Depressed company valuations – Private company valuations are cooling down. Over the last 4 quarters, we have seen public valuations compressing.

 Software companies have three critical revenue streams.

  1. License / Subscription Revenue – When the customer pays for the right to own and use a copy of the software/hardware product or subscribe/access  software platform
  2. software or hardware product – Customer pays for ongoing support or premium support.
  3. Cloud based licensed software – Customer pays the software provider for specific deliverables such as software implementation or technical training.

In the current world all these 3 revenue streams are shrinking. Companies are using only essential services to run their business. This is directly impacting software revenue, which is leading these companies into low valuation.

Infrastructure Maintenance –  SaaS companies are providing the software as a service. This means the customer does not have to purchase hardware to run the software—that cost is transferred to the SaaS provider. This is implying continuous software running coast. This cost is not going anywhere.So due to inflation this SaaS running cost increases tremendously.

Recession: Industry Impact

Recession prospect is certainly very scary. World over economies are contracting. The recession has had a significant impact on the global economy, leading to decreased GDP growth and an uncertain future for many industries. The IMF cut its forecast of global GDP for the year to 2.7% and for the US GDP growth forecast is 1.4% .China and India are key players for the world’s supply-chain requirement. Post COVID pandemic China is still struggling to provide supply-chain needs to the world and India is still in process to build supply-chain needs. Escalating Russia-Ukraine war and geopolitical tension is disrupting the world’s supply-chain. 

Due to all these issues,Inflation is very high across the world. The inflation rate depends on the balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand within the economy. US inflation consumer prices rose 7% approx. in December 2022 from a year ago. Inflation driving up vendor price beyond budget expectation. The US Federal Reserve is increasing interest rates in the most aggressive way to curb this inflation. 

No industry is completely insulated from a recession, there are always opportunities within even the most impacted industries. The Impact of recession  is not equal for all kinds of industries. Most impacted industries are directly proportional to consumer sentiment, consumer basic requirement and consumer spending. Least impacted industries are not directly proportion to user sentiment and it is also supported by external system.

Here is worldwide recession industry impact index

In the above chart, most impact industries are consumer, consumer services and transportation. After COVID-19 this industry is cautiously optimistic about the return of travel and tourism. But  inflation and a volatile market are pulling these industries down. Loyalty programs are weakening between brand and customer. Recession industry impact index is average 8.5/10 approx. Hospitality and Airlines industries are trying to optimize their process to mitigate their risk. They are cutting routes, reducing flights, and, in some cases, shutting down offices to help reduce expenditures.

Retail and Manufacturing industries and also getting impacted with current inflation and escalating geopolitical tension. Clearly the industry has experienced unprecedented supply chain pressures and disruptions over the past two years; Global disruptions – such as the Russia / Ukraine war – continue to impact manufacturing supply chains, thereby increasing costs and delays. Recession industry impact index for this industry is 7.5/10 approx. Retail and Manufacturing industries are working on omni-channel commerce platforms, optimized operations, and omni-channel order orchestration and fulfillment to mitigate their risk. They are reducing overhead cost and going for digital.

The Federal/Central Government is the most recession proof industry. It needs to make ongoing investment to keep the country running. Critical infrastructure management, border, customs and immigration management are key activities the government can not ignore and reduce investment. Even in COVID-19 pandemic time influx of federal funding and ample emergency funds put state and local entities in recession-ready shape. Recession industry impact index for this industry is 1/10 approx.